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Flexible Packaging Tariffs 2025-2026: Your Early Warning System

Published on January 21, 2026

The average tariff rate jumped from 2% to 24% between January and August 2025—pushing flexible packaging material costs up 30-50% from China and other key suppliers. Companies that saw these shifts coming months early are thriving. Those that didn’t are scrambling.

This guide delivers the current tariff picture by material and country, plus the monitoring systems to anticipate what comes next.

Part 1: Current tariffs by material

Section 232: Aluminum foil doubled to 50%

President Trump doubled Section 232 tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, 2025, affecting aluminum from all countries except the UK (25% rate).

Key aluminum codes now at 50%: 7607.11, 7607.19, 7607.20

The August 2025 expansion added 407 product codes including metal closures. No exclusion process exists—Commerce stopped accepting requests February 10, 2025. Less than 10% of aluminum foil can be sourced domestically.

Reciprocal tariffs by country

China: 10% reciprocal + 10% fentanyl + 7.5-25% Section 301 = 30-50% total (reciprocal rate suspended through Nov 10, 2026)

India: 50% (25% base + 25% penalty)

Vietnam: 20% (down from 46%)

Japan/South Korea: 15%

Mexico/Canada: 0% for USMCA-compliant; 25-35% for non-compliant

EU: 0-15%

Section 301 tariffs stack on China

Film materials from China:

  • PE films (3920.10.00): ~49%
  • BOPP films (3920.20.00): ~49%
  • PET films (3920.62.00): Over 100% (with antidumping duties up to 76.72%)

178 exclusions extended through November 10, 2026. Check codes.

Material cost snapshot (January 2026)

BOPP films:
China ~49% | Vietnam ~24% | India ~54% | Mexico (USMCA) 0%

Aluminum foil:
All countries 50% | UK 25%

PET films:
China 100%+ | Vietnam ~24%

The 2025 timeline

  • Mar 12: Section 232 at 25%; exemptions ended
  • Apr 2: “Liberation Day”—10% baseline + country-specific rates
  • Jun 4: Section 232 doubled to 50%
  • Aug 18: 407 derivative products added

Aluminum costs jumped one-third after June 2025. 83% of brand owners expected packaging cost increases.

Part 2: Your early warning system

Lead time between announcement and implementation: 3-7 days in 2025 vs. 12+ months in 2017-2018. Companies with monitoring systems had months of advance warning.

Political signals (6-18 month lead time)

Congressional committees: Senate Finance  and House Ways & Means hold hearings before major policy shifts.

USTR investigations precede tariffs:

  • Section 301 China Phase One compliance (Oct 2025)
  • Section 301 Brazil (Jul 2025)
  • Section 232 for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals

Key decision points:

  • Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA authority (early 2026)
  • China tariff framework expires Nov 10, 2026
  • USMCA review begins Jul 1, 2026

Set alerts: federalregister.gov (filter by USTR, Commerce/BIS, CBP)

Economic indicators

Trade deficits drive political action. Monitor at census.gov/foreign-trade. Tariffs typically follow within 6-18 months of record deficits.

Capacity utilization from Fed’s G.17 report. When plastics capacity exceeds 80%, expect antidumping petitions.

Antidumping petitions at trade.gov/ec-adcvd-case-announcements provide direct warning. Current case: Polypropylene Corrugated Boxes from China/Vietnam (filed Mar 2025).

Geopolitical signals

Trump-Xi October 2025 meeting cut China’s fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10%. Watch for:

  • Presidential summits with trading partners
  • Framework agreement announcements
  • Foreign retaliation
  • Supreme Court decisions (ruling expected early 2026)

Companies that prepared

Hammont Premier Packaging diversified suppliers 18 months early. CEO Isaac Link invested in local suppliers and redesigned products.

Deer Stags had $1M inventory stranded in China when overnight tariffs jumped duties from $60K to $1.5M. The shoes missed back-to-school season.

Your monitoring framework

Weekly:

Monthly:

Quarterly:

Action triggers:

  • AD/CVD petition in your product category
  • Section 301/232 investigation for your materials
  • Bilateral trade deficit records
  • Import volume surge (50%+ YoY)

Free monitoring resources

What comes next?

Key 2026 decision points: Supreme Court IEEPA ruling (early 2026), China framework expires Nov 10, USMCA review begins Jul 1.

Now Plastics maintains suppliers across multiple geographies because this environment demands flexibility. When your supplier’s costs change overnight, pre-qualified alternatives aren’t optional.

Next in this series: Supplier diversification strategies—qualifying alternatives, balancing inventory costs, and structuring tariff-protected contracts.

Part 1 of Now Plastics’ Future-Proofing Series for flexible packaging converters.